February 2012 MLB Events

Internet baseball betting

Wednesday MLB Playoffs Betting Doubleheader
2010-10-21

Baseball betting fans have plenty to wager on today as both Championship Series will be in action. The early game features the New York Yankees playing in a ‘must win’ situation as they host the Texas Rangers. In the night game, the Philadelphia Phillies need a win to even the series up 2-2.

Let’s take a look at each game a little more closely and see if we can’t expose some profitable baseball betting angles.

TEXAS RANGERS at NEW YORK YANKEES

ALCS Game 5, Texas leads series 3-1

Wednesday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Sportsbook.com Betting Odds: New York -165, Texas +155, Total: 8

If the Yankees are to continue their season past Wednesday they’ll need a big-time performance from CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) who gets the ball in Game 5. He’ll be opposed by C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA). The two left-handers squared off in Game 1 of the series, a 6-5 New York victory.

Sabathia struggled in the series opener, going four innings and allowing five runs on six hits while walking four and striking out three. The offense bailed him out with a five-run eighth inning as the Yankees erased a 5-0 deficit en route to the win. In his two playoff starts this year, Sabathia’s ERA is a hefty 7.20. Wednesday marks his first home postseason start this year and Sabathia pitched well at Yankee Stadium in 2010, going 11-2 with a 3.00 ERA.

Wilson pitched well enough to win Game 1, allowing three runs on six hits over seven innings. He’s pitched well lately too, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA over his last three starts, which includes a 1-0 record and a 2.03 ERA in two playoff starts. He’s also been strong on road this season, going 5-5 with a 2.72 ERA (including postseason). The Rangers have won six of his past eight road starts.

The following MLB betting trend seems to indicate that the Rangers will finish off the Yankees tonight:

Play On - Any team (TEXAS) - when leading in a playoff series. (61-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +37.6 units. Rating = 4*).

MLB Handicapping Study – Divisional Dogs
2010-07-14

I had a conversation last week with a FoxSheets subscriber who claimed to have consistent success in betting baseball by following just a short list of fundamental concepts and strategies. While some of them were FoxSheets info-related in terms of systems and power ratings, etc, one of them was much more straight forward and it involved simply looking for value-laden underdogs in divisional games. Of course this piqued my curiosity, and to scratch that itch, I went back and did a study analyzing the performance of divisional dogs over the last decade.

One of the most fundamental beliefs in anyone who puts more weight in divisional games is that there is a familiarity that decreases the theoretical talent margin between two teams. They face each other so many times each season that they are well-versed in the strengths and weaknesses of each player and thus the opponent as a whole. Realistically, the oddsmaker doesn’t take this into account as much, since they are typically building their lines from a more universal set of power ratings that doesn’t recognize situational factors such as divisional play. Obviously the underlying thought is that this disconnect should lend value to anyone who believes in the power of the rivalry.

So, having theoretically been convinced that there was some merit to this divisional underdog theory, I set out to find out the actual results. I took all of the divisional games played in Major League Baseball between 2000 and this past Sunday (July 11th) and tabulated the wins, losses, and betting units won had a bettor backed every divisional dog in that time frame. The results are below.

Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)

Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS

2000: 224-293 (43.3%), +24.4 Units

2001: 284-376 (43.0%), +8.2 Units

2002: 251-417 (37.6%), -57 Units

2003: 265-404 (39.6%), -2.5 Units

2004: 283-403 (41.3%), +4.9 Units

2005: 318-400 (44.3%), +43.9 Units

2006: 301-411 (42.3%), +2.1 Units

2007: 306-377 (44.8%), +53.4 Units

2008: 308-406 (43.1%), +22.1 Units

2009: 270-421 (39.1%), -39.6 Units

2010: 134-187 (41.7%), +1.4 Units

TOTAL: 2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

Average Road Underdog Line: -158

Average Return on Investment = 0.9%

As you can see, the divisional road underdog has been generally successful, producing 61.3 units of profit over the last decade-plus, with a R.O.I. of about 0.9%. Now, that isn’t enough to really wow a systems handicapper, but it does suggest that the strategy of backing road divisional dogs will at least keep the average joe in the fight against the oddsmakers. One important thing to note from the season-by-season results is that in only three of the 11 seasons has the road divisional dog netted a loss. So it can be said that the results of 2002 & 2009 in particular skew the numbers of what would be an otherwise more solid theory.

Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Season (2000-2010)

Season: W-L (PCT), UNITS

2000: 127-112 (53.1%), +49.5 Units

2001: 157-215 (42.2%), -22.4 Units

2002: 156-210 (42.6%), -4.2 Units

2003: 171-199 (46.2%), +25.6 Units

2004: 150-187 (44.5%), +11 Units

2005: 133-185 (41.8%), -14.9 Units

2006: 162-187 (46.4%), +15.3 Units

2007: 152-184 (45.2%), +0.8 Units

2008: 147-160 (47.9%), +12.2 Units

2009: 143-184 (43.7%), -14.4 Units

2010: 74-77 (49.0%), +13.3 Units

TOTAL: 1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

Average Home Underdog Line: +129

Average Return on Investment = 2.1%

The divisional home underdog has proven over doubly effective than those on the road in terms of R.O.I., producing about 2.1% over the last 11 seasons, with a net profit of 71.8 units. Again, only four seasons netted a loss during that time span, with 2002 & 2009 again being part of the group. It is interesting to see that divisional home dogs up through the all-star break in 2010 have won 49% of their games, the highest winning percentage since 2000, with a R.O.I. of 8.8%.

Divisional Road Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)

HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS

-300 or higher: 24-66 (26.7%), +5.7 Units

-250 to -299: 58-148 (28.2%), -9.6 Units

-220 to -249: 143-252 (36.2%), +47.8 Units

-190 to -219: 236-410 (36.5%), +25.7 Units

-170 to -189: 305-501 (37.8%), +4.4 Units

-150 to -169: 529-801 (39.8%), -25.7 Units

-130 to -149: 786-973 (44.7%), +29.2 Units

-116 to -129: 435-477 (47.7%), +12.5 Units

-106 to -115: 428-467 (47.8%), -28.7 Units

TOTAL: 2944-4095 (41.8%), +61.3 Units

As you can see, there are some distinct breaks in success rates by divisional road dogs when you consider the line range in which they are playing too. There is a so-called “sweet spot” when the home team is favored in the -190 to -249 range. In these games since 2000, the road divisional dog has only won about 36.4% of its games, but has produced 73.5 units of profit. That equates to a R.O.I. of 7.1%. Now that type of return is something that mutual fund managers would kill for nowadays. If only us bettors had dropped our 401K money into this option rather than on Wall Street!

Divisional Home Underdogs in MLB by Line Range (2000-2010)

HOME LINE: W-L (PCT), UNITS

+105 to -104: 440-456 (49.1%), -5.2 Units

+106 to +120: 456-480 (48.7%), +40.8 Units

+121 to +154: 475-585 (44.8%), +54.7 Units

+155 to +199: 167-289 (36.6%), -6.2 Units

+200 or higher: 34-90 (27.4%), -12.3 Units

TOTAL: 1572-1900 (45.3%), +71.8 Units

The break in line range performance by home divisional dogs is very transparent. Those playing in the +106 to +154 range have been a solid investment over the last decade-plus, going 931-1065 for +95.5 units of profit. Compare that to the home divisional dogs in every other range that have netted -23.7 units of loss. Considering that 1,996 games have produced 4.8% R.O.I. over the 11-year span, bettors have a strategy in front of them that has produced both handsomely and consistently. At an average of 190 games per season, bettors can expect to have an opportunity to take advantage about once a night during the baseball season.

Summary

The results of the divisional dogs study are encouraging as it doesn’t take a whole lot of digging to come up with plays that should produce profits over the long haul, assuming of course that proper money management techniques are held to. Of course, this study was conducted using dime lines as the basis, and bettors paying higher vig than that is just cheating themselves. I would have no problem recommending the divisional dog strategy as a basis for beginning your baseball handicapping each day. When you spice in bullpen analysis, systems, and other key strength indicators, you should have all you need to build a nice bankroll each summer.

MLB: A Little MLB Trendy Talk
2010-06-02

Because the sport of baseball is played on daily basis, all teams have streaks, some are good and others are not. For this Hump Day, we’ll focus on four teams that couldn’t knockout their own shadow, let alone defeat the team in the other dugout the way they are playing. Is today the day these derided derelicts of the diamond stand up and fight over adversity? Probably not.

Arizona at L.A. Dodgers 3:10 E

Anytime you are 0 for anything, chances are life isn’t going so well. The Arizona Diamondbacks (20-33, -12.9 units) left the unfriendly borders of home on May 24 and haven’t won a game since, losing the first eight encounters of the road trip and a total of nine overall. The D-Backs offense tends to run like a microwave, or or off, unfortunately manager A.J. Hench just can’t press a button for start. The Snakes have averaged 2.1 runs per game in this stretch which places them in tough spots and they have lost last three contests in opponents final at bat.

Arizona is 3-12 after three or more consecutive losses this season and 8-22 with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games and today’s get-away game in Los Angeles (30-22, +2.2) has added meaning for D-Backs players. Arizona is a +134 underdog at Sportsbook.com against the Dodgers, who have taken the first two games of the series and are 13-32 in road tilts with double revenge. It will be Edwin Jackson (3-6, 6.03 ERA) for the Snakes against rookie Carlos Monasterios (2-0, 2.20) and L.A. is only 15-1 off three straight wins vs. division rivals over the last two seasons.

Chic. Cubs at Pittsburgh 7:05 E

In Chicago there has been a lot of talk about how lifeless the Cubs (24-29, -13 units) have played all season. This is a stunning development to Cubs fans who figured that Lou Piniella would throwing players out of the clubhouse and turning over tables and chewing on umpires’ ears on a daily basis with his team’s nonchalant attitude on the field. Instead, Piniella has acted like an older employee taken over by new ownership and just wants to keep quiet until his full pension kicks in.

It doesn’t help the middle of the Cubs lineup resembles the recent Guatemalan sinkhole, with Derek Lee batting .232 and Aramis Ramirez (.167) needs a three week hitting streak just to climb to Mendoza Line.

Forget all that and somebody explain why the Cubs 1-7 against Pittsburgh (22-31, +4.0) in 2010 and have lost 10 of 11 to the Pirates. With Pittsburgh a National League worst -128 in run differential, it would seem logical the Bucs are going to win a few one run games and get clobbered the rest of the time, however for the Cubs, it seems the worse a team is, the more awful they play. Chicago has these dubious angles riding, they are 2-11 vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs a game on the season and 2-8 in road contests if teams in their own league allows 5.3 or more runs per outing.

The Cubs turn to Carlos Zambrano of all people for the start and they are -135 favorites and oh by the way, are 1-7 revenging a loss vs. opponent as a road favorite this season. One other note, Pittsburgh is 10-2 at home after a one run victory.

Baltimore at N.Y. Yankees 7:05 E

It cannot be very fun to go to work every day as a Baltimore Orioles player. Your teams stinks with 15-37 record (-17.4) and the division you play in has four of the five teams with the best record in the American League as June starts moving forward.

Baltimore actually held the New York Yankees (32-20, +2.8) to three runs last night, but tallied just one themselves. The O’s are 3-19 after scoring two runs or less this year and alarming 1-17 in road games after scoring one or fewer runs in a loss to an AL East rival since 2008. Even when the Birds get a good pitched game, they are 6-27 as visitors after scoring and allowing three runs or less.

It’s little wonder why Baltimore is a +260 underdog in the Bronx having to face Phil Hughes (6-1, 2.70), whose been New York’s best and most consistent pitcher this season. The Yankees are scoring 6.6 runs per game in the pinstripes and are 16-1 in home conflicts after allowing one run or less.

Cleveland at Detroit 7:05 E

The Tigers (26-25, +0.4) have lost eight of 10 with a balky offense not firing regularly. In Detroit’s previous defeats, they have scored 2.3 runs per game, compared to 4.4 in the season. Manager Jim Leyland has considered having the public address system at Comerica Park play Motley Crue’s “Kick start my heart” every time his team comes to bat since all aspects of the pitching have been solid and fielding on good ground, yet they are only 12-19 after four straight games where they committed no errors.

Detroit managed only two runs against Jake Westbrook and Cleveland in 3-2 loss on Tuesday and gives the ball to Armando Galarraga (1-1, 4.50), who makes his third start of the season and first since May 22.

Though it’s nice to see Galarraga has worked hard to return to the big leagues after beginning the season in the minors, he still has a poor track record with 4-14 record in night games since last year. (Tigers Record) With Cleveland in the throes of a terrible season at 19-31, Detroit at -142 money line wager at online sports betting outlets sounds like a descent wager, yet they are 8-15 vs. teams outscored by one or more runs a contest on the season.

Will the Tigers be able to overcome 4-12 record with Galarraga as starting pitcher against losing team and instead move to 13-1 at Comerica off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite? Stay tuned.

MLB: St. Louis vs. L.A. Dodgers Divisional Series
2009-10-07

The pressure, the intensity and the drama all ratchet up in the Major Leagues with post-season baseball. The National League picture has really changed in the last 45 days. It has finally settled into divisional series matchups pitting the Dodgers versus the Cardinals, and the Rockies vs. the Phillies. Here is a look at that St. Louis-Los Angeles matchup from a betting perspective. When you’re through reading it, head over to the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook.com to see all of the available game, series, and prop wagering options.

The Los Angeles Dodgers were thought to be a lock to win the National League West, when they seemingly lost interest. From August 28 on, the Dodgers only played nine of last 34 games against teams with winning records and yet didn’t clinch NL West crown until the next to last day of the regular season. In fact, Los Angeles had six straight days to wrap up the division and lost five in a row before finally defeating Colorado this past Saturday. The Dodgers were less than inspiring 19-14 against the below average competition to finish the regular season and are +123 underdogs despite home field advantage.

How could that be one might wonder, it’s because they are playing St. Louis. Most baseball experts are saying forget the fact they lost six of last seven games, that was just a team setting up rotation and preparing for the playoffs. No team in baseball was more aggressive before the trade deadline in adding quality players to their roster. Matt Holliday was really the most important acquisition, as he brought a potent bat to help Albert Pujols batting cleanup. From July 24 until Sept.22, St. Louis was baseball best 37-17.

The Cardinals appear to also have two distinct advantages in this series, superior starting pitching and better bullpen. Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24 ERA) would have two starts in this series if it goes the distance. Carpenter led the National League with the lowest ERA and he’s been ridiculous of late with sick 0.45 earned run average in his last three starts. Adam Wainwright (19-4) was fourth in ERA at 2.63. Only once in 18 times did Carpenter and Wainwright lose back to back games and that hasn’t happened in over three months.

Offensive – National League
Runs scored Dodgers 4th St. Louis 7th
Home Runs Dodgers 11th St. Louis 6th
Slugging Pct. Dodgers 7th St. Louis 6th
Walks Dodgers 4th St. Louis 12th
On base Pct. Dodgers 1st St. Louis 10th

Pitching & Defense
ERA Dodgers 1st St. Louis 4th
Bullpen ERA Dodgers 1st St. Louis 4th
Strikeouts Dodgers 2nd St. Louis 14th
Walks Dodgers 8th St. Louis 1st
On base Pct. Dodgers 1st St. Louis 3rd
Putouts Dodgers 1st St. Louis 10th
Errors Dodgers 4th St. Louis 9th

Key Numbers- The Cardinals have won five of seven this season and is 5-4 at Dodger Stadium the last three years. With the Dodgers having to face two stud pitchers in the first two games, note they are 8-16 vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.

Sportsbook.com Series Odds: Cardinals -150, Dodgers +130

MLB Series Betting- St. Louis at Philadelphia
2009-07-27

The last time the Philadelphia Phillies were playing this well, they were on their way to a World Series title. The Phillies are working on a third consecutive NL East division title, having won 15 of last 17 games. Philadelphia (54-39, +8.5 units) is the most offensive team in the National League scoring 5.4 runs per game. The have great diversity, being able to get runners on base and stealing bases to keep the opposing pitcher and defense on edge. If they trail in a contest, the batting order is loaded with big boppers who can help them come from behind. (Baseball bettors always review the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages every single day.)

St. Louis (52-46, -1.2 units) was able to help itself out of mini-slump like many have before them by beating Washington in a rain-shorten makeup game Thursday. The Cardinals are just 4-6 in last 10 games and have seen NL Central lead diminish to 1.5 games. They arrive in the City of Brotherly Love 5-12 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

J.A. Happ (7-0 2.68 ERA) will be the opening game starter for the Phillies, which could be his last based on circulating reports. Happ is the main piece Toronto would want in return for Roy Halladay trade and why not. Happ is 26-year old lefthander, has posted 5-0 record since going into the rotation in late May and over his last five outings, he is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA, with 24 strikeouts and five walks in 37 innings. Philadelphia is -135 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com, with total of U9. The Phils come into Friday’s tilt 42-20 having won four of their last five games.

St. Louis will attempt to build on Thursday’s victory and might start their newest member, Julio Lugo at shortstop. Lugo was acquired from Boston for outfielder Chris Duncan and is thought as offensive sparkplug to ignite Cards offense which is eighth in the NL in runs scored. Joel Pineiro (8-9, 3.09) has mediocre record, yet has pitched well as ERA indicates. Though not a strikeout pitcher, Pineiro has kept the ball down and has not been taken out of the yard like in the past. Nevertheless, he and Cardinals are 7-17 after a win.

Game 1 Edge: Philadelphia

Game 2 will be Fox late afternoon affair. Philadelphia started this series 38-20 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half the last two years and will entrust Rodrigo Lopez (2-0, 2.60) with another start. Lopez’s spot in the rotation is also in jeopardy with Pedro Martinez not far away from coming off the DL. The 33-year old Lopez has at least shown he should be part of the Phillies pitching staff and could spot start or be used in long relief for a team that has won 12 of last 14 home games.

Manager Tony LaRussa will turn to Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.21) to cool down Philly. Lohse was roughed up on July 12th after coming off the DL by the Cubs, however turned in a more typical performance, pitching seven innings and allowing three runs against Houston his last time out. The situation definitely favors Charley Manuel’s squad since Lohse and the Cards are 1-10 when he starts on the road.

Game 2 Edge: St. Louis

The series finale has the Cardinals turning to Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68), which has not been a suitable option for awhile for a team in a pennant race. Wellemeyer has ERA over 6.5 in his last eight starts. He’s been hit hard, with right-hand batters hitting .301 and lefties crushing him with .340 average. Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24) of Philadelphia has been just the opposite. After a slow beginning to the season, Blanton is 4-1 with 2.43 ERA since May 21, which covers 10 starts. Blanton has no magical reason why he’s pitched so well. “It's a little more quality pitches, maybe," Blanton said. "Maybe my changeup has come around lately. My sinker is down instead of flat and over the plate, and that always helps. Other than that, I'm just trying to pitch." This Sunday contest is afternoon game and the Phillies came in 18-10 in day ball, compared to the Redbirds 20-17 mark.

Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia

Since I’ve done so poorly picking these series, brought in a guest expert and they’ve been 2-0 this season. Red Wydley has this to say about who wins this series of division leaders. “Philadelphia wins handily, with a sweep possible. The Phillies are scoring 6.4 runs in last 17 games; the Cards have tallied more than five runs twice in last 10. Philadelphia is playing before packed houses every night and has caught fire at home winning 12 of 14. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan should go into Hall of Fame the way he figures out how to maximize pitchers, but I’ll still take the Phillies relievers late in games. The ONLY way St. Louis wins this series is if Albert (Pujols) the Great hits .500 with four dingers. Philly, no problem.”
Sportsbook.com series odds: St. Louis +140, Philadelphia -180
StatFox Edge Pick: Philadelphia

Betting NL Pennant Chase
2008-09-24

The divisional pennant races are coming down to a few precious days and are way more interesting to those betting baseball than “The Mentalist” on CBS. Here is a look at tonight’s key wagering information in the National League.

The Philadelphia Phillies had their ace Cole Hamels on the mound last evening against a team they had bludgeoned all season, but it wasn’t enough in a 3-2 loss. Philadelphia had averaged 6.2 runs per game against Atlanta, yet couldn’t get the offense cranked up last night. The Phillies lead has been cut to one in the NL East with the loss and Brett Myers (10-12, 4.46 ERA) takes the mound for his club. The Phils are -270 favorites at Sportsbook.com, though not because of Myers instilling confidence. When Myers starts, he and the Phils are 6-14 as -110 or higher favorites this season. The better news comes from the Braves camp, where Jo-Jo Reyes and Atlanta are 2-13 as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.

Johan Santana showed why he was worth the big money last night, in throwing a career high 125 pitches in defeating the Chicago Cubs 6-2. The two-time AL Cy Young Award winner gave up two runs, seven hits, walked two and struck out 10 en route to winning his eighth straight decision and 15th this year. This brought the Mets within a game of Philly and kept Milwaukee at bay in the wild card chase. Oliver Perez (10-7, 4.10) has one decision in his last seven starts (a win), with New York posting a 5-2 record. They will need a big effort out of the left-hander who is 41-20 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game. (Team’s Record) The Mets are -135 home favorites with total at Ov8.5. New York is 21-6 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. They will face the Cubs Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.77), who is 11-2 as an underdog of +100 or higher. (Cubs Record)

Prince Fielder kept Milwaukee’s playoff hopes alive with a walk-off home run to defeat Pittsburgh 7-5. The Brewers trail New York by a game and are hitting the baseball again, averaging over 10 hits a game in last eight outings. Interim manager Dale Sveum will roll the dice, starting C.C. Sabathia (15-10, 2.85) on three days rest in spite of the lefty not winning any of his last four starts. Milwaukee is 12-1 against Pittsburgh this season, including a perfect 7-0 at Miller Park. The Brewers are 35-16 at home taking on teams with losing record.

The Los Angeles Dodgers magic number is three after laying the lumber to San Diego 10-1 and Arizona losing to St. Louis 7-4. The Dodgers are a -230 favorite with youngster Clayton Kershaw (4-5, 4.28) starting for L.A. The Dodgers are 16-3 in home games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season, going against the pathetic Padres, who are 21-47 when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

After veteran Randy Johnson couldn’t check the St. Louis bats, Arizona turns to rookie and St. Louis native Max Scherzer (0-3, 3.00 ERA) as he makes his seventh start. The D-Backs are a +120 road underdog and are 27-42 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. They draw a hot pitcher in Adam Wainright (10-3, 3.21), who is 4-0 in six starts since coming off the disabled list from a sprained right middle finger. Wainright and the Cards are 12-0 when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Hump Day Games of Importance in NL
2008-07-23

Philadelphia’s been stumbling around a bit and has the New York Mets and Florida breathing down their necks. They would like to believe they helped take care of a portion of this conundrum last night with remarkable six-run ninth inning to stun the Mets 8-6, after having started the top of the frame with a 5-2 deficit. This gave the Phillies sole possession of first place in the NL East, as they prepare for Game 2 of the series.

The Mets wasted another Johan Santana performance, as he allowed just two runs over eight innings and the bullpen without Billy Wagner collapsed. This is just the latest chapter in New York’s inability to close out opponent, now down to 63.2 percent save percentage, with blown save number 14. John Maine (8-7, 4.22, 1.354 WHIP) will be called upon to set the Mets back on winning ways, having lost three of four. Maine has been effective against Philly, with a 4-0 record and 2.36 ERA in his career and his teammates have won seven of his eight starts against them.

Brett Myers (3-9, 5.84, 1.564 WHIP) will make his first start since June 27, trying to kick start a languishing career at this juncture. He’s spent the last three weeks in the minor leagues, and despite going 1-3, he struck out 28 in 27 innings and finished with a 3.00 ERA. Myers is relishing the opportunity to come back against the Mets. “I can’t think of a better team for me to come back against,” Myers told the Phillies’ official Web site. “I don’t like them. We’re not supposed to like them. Nothing against the guys on the team—they’re our rivals.” The right-hander is 5-1 with a 4.83 ERA in nine career starts at Shea Stadium. It has not been a bimillenary since Myers last won on the road; it just seems like it with 0-6 record and gargantuan 8.18 ERA.

Sportsbook.com is showing the Mets as -129 money line favorites, with total Un9. The Phillies are one of three teams in baseball with a winning road record at 27-23 (+2.8 units) and are 16-5 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last two seasons. New York will try to ride the Maine Express, as he and his teammates are 37-15 when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last three years.

First pitch is set for 7:10 Eastern in ESPN.

Out West, the Chicago Cubs lead has been cut to a single game in the NL Central, having lost four out of five on current road trip. Take away Sunday’s 9-0 win at Houston and the Cubs the offense is colder than an upper deck third base line seat in April at Wrigley Field with the wind howling off Lake Michigan. In Chicago’s last six losses, they have generated a total of six runs. Manager Lou Pinella even tried to shake things up yesterday, canceling batting practice for games two and three of this series, stating “I’m tired of watching all the balls go flying over the fence and nothing during the games.” No magic was forthcoming yesterday, as the chilly Cub bats scored a mere two runs on seven hits and five walks.

Arizona after losing two of three to the Los Angeles Dodgers, is starting to regain confidence with two impressive wins over Chicago. The D-Backs are 8-1 at Chase Field against the Cubs the last few years, including a pair in the postseason last fall. Doug Davis (3-4, 4.13, 1.527) gets the call as the Snakes go for the series sweep. The team from the Windy City is a -114 road choice with total at 9. Davis and Arizona are 14-5 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two campaigns.

Ted Lilly (9-6, 4.49, 1.332) will attempt to turnaround his club’s fortunes. There is an angle for every sort of Cubs fan or backer this evening. For the optimist who can’t see the North Siders losing three straight, the Cubs are 15-3 after scoring three runs or less two straight games this season. For the pessimist who owns the t-shirt explaining the 99 years of frustration, Chicago is 8-24 after batting .240 or worse over a 10-game span since 2006.

This contest starts at 9:40 Eastern and is available in local markets.

StatFox Power Line – Mets-127, Cubs -109